Water figures grim
A LEADING scientific analysis of future water availability in northern Victoria under various climate change scenarios has highlighted the need for changes in irrigation.
The CSIRO Sustainable Yields Report, commissioned in 2006 to measure the amount of water available in the Murray-Darling Basin system, has found the threat of decreased inflows in the Loddon, Campaspe and Goulburn systems demands a review of water use in the region.
The report was commissioned by the Howard Government to provide a scientific analysis of surface and ground water quantities across the entire basin, with the three specific northern Victorian reports released this week.
The reports found if climate conditions of the last ten years continued, water availability would decrease by 54 per cent for the Campaspe and 50 per cent in the drier Loddon system.
The Goulburn system would suffer a lower reduction of 41 per cent, but as present water extraction of 1606 gigalitres amounted to 50 per cent of available water, the impact would be more significant.
Report director Dr Tom Hatton said the study incorporated numerous climate change models from high to low change, but water availability for the three Victorian catchments were all below the long-term average.
"We’ve been very honest in incorporating the best available science for all the levels of climate modelling," Dr Hatton said.
He said the advantage of the spectrum of climate change possibilities in the next 22 years was that it enabled governments and the agricultural industry to prepare for those scenarios.
But Dr Hatton said the problem was that even under the best climate change estimates water availability in 2030 would drop by 14 per cent in the Goulburn to 18 per cent in the Loddon system, while water diverted for use would only drop by five or six per cent.
There was political consensus on the gravity of the irrigation problem, but not on the action needed.
Federal Minister for Water Penny Wong said the report highlighted the need for integrated ground water and surface water caps and the importance of the $400 million allocation buy back announced in this weeks Federal Budget.
Victorian Water Minister Tim Holding said the impact of climate change underlined the importance of the $2 billion investment proposed by State and Federal governments in the northern Victorian irrigation systems that would save an estimated 425 gigalitres though faulty gates and channels.
But the opposition said the situation showed the folly of removing more water from already struggling catchments for urban use.
Liberal member for northern Victoria Wendy Lovell also called for Victoria to ensure a four per cent cap on permanent water trading out of any water region remained, saying otherwise the result could be disastrous for small rural communities.
Ms Lovell said water brokers had already predicted the cap would be reached within days of the 2008-09 seasons starting in July and scrapping it would lead to even more water leaving irrigation communities.
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